Mastering decision-making isn't about outcomes, which are often swayed by luck, but about rigorously dissecting the process of how decisions are made. Our innate self-serving bias blinds us to flawed thinking when outcomes are favourable, making genuine learning impossible. By adopting a "Process Principle" and…..

The article argues that a "margin of safety" is crucial for navigating an unpredictable world, acting as an essential buffer against unforeseen failures in all aspects of life, not just finance. It critiques the hubris of certainty, exemplified by Long-Term Capital Management's downfall, and advocates for prudent preparation…..

This article dissects the pervasive human tendency towards inaction, despite knowing the optimal path forward. It introduces a framework for decision-making based on Consequentiality and Reversibility, advocating for swift action on low-risk choices and meticulous deliberation for high-stakes ones. Ultimately…..

In a world overwhelmed by information, effective decision-making hinges on establishing unwavering criteria to filter noise from signal. Identifying the single most important objective and ruthlessly prioritising against it, even through difficult processes like the "sticky note battle," is paramount. This clarity, combined…..

This article argues that true clear thinking, a crucial "weapon" in navigating life's challenges, is not about optimistic fantasising but about confronting brutal facts and anticipating consequences. It advocates for "second-level thinking" and embracing complex, "Both-And" solutions over binary traps, urging readers to…..

Shane Parrish argues that genuine clarity in decision-making hinges on accurately defining the problem, not rushing to solutions. He advocates for understanding root causes, stripping away jargon, and separating problem definition from solution generation to overcome societal defaults that lead to perpetual symptom…..

The article argues that mistakes are an unavoidable part of life, often revealing flaws in our understanding rather than just bad luck. It critiques the human tendency towards self-serving bias and inertial thinking, which prevent us from acknowledging and learning from errors. The core message emphasises that…..